Turkey at World Cup 2026: First Since 2002, Güler and Yıldız

After a 24-year wait, Turkey are back at a World Cup. Vincenzo Montella's side, led by the Arda Güler and Kenan Yıldız generation, open in Group D alongside Australia, Paraguay and co-hosts the United States.

For the first time since 2002 — the edition where they sensationally finished third — Turkey are at a World Cup again. Qualification came the hard way: in their qualifying group, Vincenzo Montella's side finished just two points behind Spain, then came through the play-offs with two narrow wins, 1-0 over Romania and 1-0 over Kosovo, the decisive one sealed on 31 March. A path that says a lot about this team's maturity.

Montella's project rests on a wave of young talent that has exploded in recent years. Arda Güler, now an important starter at Real Madrid, and Kenan Yıldız, a generational forward at Juventus, are the faces of the new Turkey — creativity, personality and a confidence the national team lacked in the recent past. Around them, Hakan Çalhanoğlu's experience in midfield and Çağlar Söyüncü's solidity in defence provide the necessary balance.

Group D is no easy draw. Turkey open against Australia in Vancouver on 13 June, then meet Paraguay in San Francisco and close the group with a heated clash against co-hosts the United States in Los Angeles — a fixture with guaranteed atmosphere and maximum stakes. Australia bring physical intensity, Paraguay a stubborn South American defence, and the USA the pressure of a home crowd.

For Turkish fans, qualification alone is already a celebration. But the squad's profile suggests ambition can go beyond participation: a team with this level of attacking talent has the weapons to dream of the last 16.

### Redge AI Perspective

The Poisson model applied by Redge, calibrated on qualifying form and on opponents' ratings in Group D, estimates a group-qualification probability for Turkey of roughly 52% — a balanced group with no clearly detached favourite. For the opener against Australia, the estimated goal distribution points to an Over 2.5 goals probability of around 55% and a "both teams to score" chance of about 58%, reflecting two sides that create chances but are not defensively impenetrable.

The factor the Redge model tracks is the creative output of the Güler–Yıldız pairing in tight games: the deeper the opponent defends, the more important the value they generate through assists and shots from outside the box becomes. To reiterate, these are probabilistic estimates — a group this tight statistically amplifies the importance of the first match.

Whatever the outcome, Turkey 2026 marks the return of a passionate football market to the biggest stage. Follow the updated probabilities throughout the tournament at redge.bet/#worldcup.

Image: Kenan Yildiz — Daniele Mascolo / Wikimedia Commons (CC0)