World Cup 2026: the stars missing and those racing to be fit

Two days before the first whistle, the 2026 World Cup already has a chapter written against everyone's wishes: the one about its big absentees. A cascade of injuries has ruled out players decisive for the tournament favourites, while others — Lionel Messi chief among them — race against the clock to be fit in time.

The heaviest loss has a Brazilian name. Rodrygo, the Real Madrid winger and Brazil's second-top scorer in qualifying, misses the tournament after a torn anterior cruciate ligament and meniscus that will most likely keep him out for the rest of 2026. Brazil's troubles do not stop there: Estêvão, the young Chelsea forward, was left off the preliminary squad with a hamstring injury, and Éder Militão, Rodrygo's club team-mate, underwent thigh surgery in April. Added to that, in the last few days, was the withdrawal of full-back Wesley, replaced by midfielder Éderson.

France pay a heavy toll too: Hugo Ekitiké, one of the in-form strikers of the season, ruptured his Achilles tendon in April and will not play at the tournament. The Netherlands lose two important men — Xavi Simons, with a knee injury (a torn cruciate ligament) suffered in a match for Tottenham, and, as of Monday, Jurriën Timber, ruled out by a groin problem. Germany were hit on the eve of departure, when the young Lennart Karl was injured in training and replaced by Assan Ouédraogo.

Not every absence is a medical one, though. England offer the most-debated case: Cole Palmer and Phil Foden were left out of the final squad as a selection decision, not through injury, after club seasons below expectations. Also for tactical reasons, Brazil left João Pedro at home despite a prolific campaign. These are choices that show how, at this level, squad depth allows omissions that in other editions would have been unthinkable.

In counterpoint stands the story of the day: Lionel Messi. Argentina's captain felt muscle fatigue in his left hamstring at the end of May, in an Inter Miami shirt, and is training separately from the group to manage the load. Manager Lionel Scaloni openly admitted that Messi will not be "fully fit" when he joins up with the national team, but also sent an optimistic message: the player has trained partly with the squad and could get a few minutes in the warm-up friendlies. The real target is the group opener, scheduled for 16 June against Algeria.

The big picture, two days from kick-off, is of a tournament that will also be judged through those who are not on the pitch. For every nation, the question is no longer just "how good is the starting eleven" but "how deep is the bench" when the list of unavailable players keeps growing until the last day.

### Redge AI Perspective

The Redge model does not issue predictions about the tournament winner; it recalibrates estimates based on the real squads, updated to the last minute. High-profile absences have different effects depending on position and depth at that role. Losing a chance-creator like Rodrygo statistically reduces the volume of quality shots generated in open play — a variable we track directly in goals-scored estimates. A defensive absence (Timber, Militão), by contrast, raises the variance band on goals conceded in transition, without necessarily changing a team's attacking ceiling.

For Argentina, the Messi situation does not translate into a "yes or no" but into a distribution of scenarios: a captain who is available but managed in minutes changes the shape of the output curve across the group stage rather than the raw probability of any single result. In probabilistic terms, that means greater uncertainty in the opening matches and a reset of estimates as Messi's minutes become clear.

The analytical conclusion is simple: before a single match is played, the map of absences has already shifted the balance of power on paper. Team-by-team recalibrations, updated after the final squads and opening friendlies, will be available at redge.bet/#worldcup.

Image: Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 4.0)