Norway vs Iraq: Haaland's first World Cup
[After a 28-year absence, Norway return to the World Cup — and they do it with one of the most prolific strikers of his generation. Across from them, on Tuesday night in Foxborough, an Iraq side that has waited 40 years to feel the world stage again. Two comebacks, one open door to the knockouts.]
Some huge careers are built, paradoxically, around an absence. Erling Haaland has won titles, claimed a Premier League Golden Boot and broken scoring records wherever he has played — yet until Tuesday, 16 June, he had never set foot on a World Cup pitch. At Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, in the Group I opener (6 p.m. ET), the Norwegian striker begins his first major global tournament. Facing him, Iraq — the "Lions of Mesopotamia" — return to the World Cup after 40 years.
For Norway, the reference number is 1998: the last time the Scandinavians played at a World Cup. Since then, whole generations of Nordic talent missed the biggest stage, even in eras when they seemed close. This time, qualification was carried by one of the most productive attacks in European qualifying. Haaland, who turns 26 in July, has scored 55 goals in 50 caps for Norway, 16 of them in just eight qualifiers — output that explains why the entire team is built through him.
But Norway are not a one-man project. Captain Martin Ødegaard brings balance and creation in midfield, Antonio Nusa and Oscar Bobb add pace on the flanks, while Alexander Sørloth and Thelo Aasgaard offer further attacking solutions. The technical question is not whether Norway can score, but whether they can control tempo and space when the opponent sits deep — exactly the likely scenario against a well-drilled Iraq.
### A 40-year return
Iraq's story carries its own weight. Their only World Cup appearance dates to 1986 in Mexico, where the team lost all three games and scored a single goal — Ahmed Radhi's strike against Belgium, still the only goal Iraq has ever scored at the tournament. Four decades on, the "Lions of Mesopotamia" are back on the world stage after a long road that finished on the final available spot, and they arrive as an underdog with nothing to lose.
That profile is precisely what makes them dangerous: a side without favourite's pressure, willing to stay compact, defend in numbers and bank on transitions and set pieces. For a Norway used to dominating possession, the trap is clear — the frustration that builds when the minutes pass and the scoreboard stays blank.
### What the opener is worth
In the new 48-team format — top two plus the eight best third-placed sides advancing — the start matters enormously. A win in the first game almost books a foot in the knockouts, while a slip immediately pressures the other two matches. For Norway, who have waited nearly three decades, the margin for error is psychological as much as mathematical.
### The Redge AI Perspective
Using a Poisson model applied to qualifying output and the gap in individual quality, Redge's read makes Norway a clear favourite without treating the result as guaranteed. The model estimates roughly a 62% probability of a Norway win, around 22% for a draw and about 16% for an Iraq surprise.
The matchup profile — a strong attack against a defence ready to drop off — pushes the model towards a scoring game: the estimated probability of Over 2.5 is around 58%, and the Triple AI consensus flags a high chance of Haaland scoring at least once, consistent with his national-team rate. The risk scenario remains the classic "prolonged 0-0": if Iraq survive the first half-hour, the psychological pressure rises visibly on the Norwegian side.
These are probabilistic estimates, not predictions. They describe a game where the question is less "who" than "how quickly" Norway can open a defence built for resistance. The full market-level analysis is on redge.bet/#worldcup.
### Beyond the result
Whatever the score, Tuesday night carries symbolic value for both sides. For Haaland, it is the moment one of the era's great attacking careers finally gets the world stage it lacked. For Iraq, mere presence — 40 years after their only precedent — is already a win for a footballing culture that has survived difficult decades. Two returns intersecting exactly where football is at its most dramatic: the first match, when everything still feels possible.
Image: Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA)