Croatia vs Belgium in Rijeka: The Final Dress Rehearsal Before the World Cup

Two nations inside FIFA's top ten meet on Tuesday night in Rijeka, at the Rujevica stadium, in a friendly that carries the feel of a dress rehearsal. Croatia host Belgium (kick-off 18:00 CEST) in their penultimate test before flying to their base in Alexandria, where the Vatreni will stay through the World Cup 2026 group stage.

What's at stake

For Zlatko Dalic, the choice of opponent is no accident. "We do not shy away from the strongest opponents in friendlies, because that is the best way to see where we stand," the Croatia boss said, describing Belgium as "an excellent test ahead of our opening match against England: physically strong, technically excellent, with dangerous, fast attackers." Croatia open their World Cup on June 17 in Dallas against England, in a Group L that also features Ghana and Panama.

Belgium, under Rudi Garcia, use the game as their own warm-up before Group G, alongside Egypt, Iran and New Zealand. The squad still carries serious weight: Kevin De Bruyne (now at Napoli), Romelu Lukaku, Thibaut Courtois and Axel Witsel provide an experienced spine.

Form and context

The head-to-head is perfectly level: nine meetings, three wins each and three draws. Their most recent encounter was memorable for its context - a 0-0 at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, a result that sent Croatia through to the knockout rounds on their way to a bronze medal.

For Croatia, the recurring question is the age of the core. Luka Modric, the 40-year-old captain now at AC Milan, leads a generation likely playing its final World Cup together. Around him, Mateo Kovacic (Manchester City), Mario Pasalic (Atalanta) and Ivan Perisic (PSV) bring continuity, but in these friendlies Dalic is hunting precisely for the balance between experience and physical freshness.

What to watch

The midfield battle is the headline: Modric and Kovacic, two technicians who set the tempo, against the dynamism and verticality De Bruyne can impose between the lines. The flank Belgium's quick attack targets will say a lot about how Croatia's centre-back pairing copes under transition pressure - exactly the kind of scenario England will seek out on June 17.

The Redge AI perspective

Using a Poisson model fed with recent-form data and the two squads' profiles, Redge frames this as a tight contest, leaning toward territorial balance with no clear favourite. As a preparation friendly, the critical variable is not the result but minute distribution: the heavy rotations both coaches will make dilute the scoreline's predictive value.

Triple AI consensus points to an interesting tier for fans: in matches between top-ten sides with well-set defensive structures, the probability of a low-scoring game rises, and the direct precedent (0-0 in 2022) supports that profile. For World Cup analysis, Redge treats this test as a calibration source for Croatia's profile against a physical opponent - useful precisely because the opener against England will demand the same kind of resilience. Any recalibration, though, will hinge on who plays and for how long, not the final number alone.

Bottom line

Rijeka offers Dalic his last major chance to see his ideas tested at high intensity before flying overseas. For Garcia, it is a chance to check his automatisms ahead of a group that looks manageable on paper. The result matters less than the answers the two benches walk away with.

For statistical breakdowns and probability models on the World Cup, visit redge.bet/#worldcup.

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